Sunday, January 25, 2009

A new price on Russian gas

20.01.2009 News review

A new price on Russian gas for Ukraine is about $230 for thousand cubic meters. Nobody will say more precisely today. A word «about» is a new know-how of the Ukrainian government, that hides the unwillingness of Julia Volodimirivna to acknowledge that she handed us to Russia.

During the first four months we will pay $360 for gas. And that is exactly twice as high, than paid until now. And Timoshenko’s «about» means a kind of an average annual price. Such a convinient gap : nobody knows its size, so no one will notice, someone will grab a piece of pie from there.

Interestingly, that Timoshenko enmeshed a little in Putin patterns. «A price which will be firm throughout the year, will make $228,8 for thousand cubic meters», - she declared in the morning. And later she told about a «quater year» pattern.

«We don’t need much gas in the first four months, when a gas price is on its highest level, because we have gas in depositories at last year price. That is why we will minimize the gas purchase in this period for the necessities of Ukraine», - declared Timoshenko. She is very proud, that Ukraine had accumulated an extra gas in its vaults. Its eems that Timoshenko is cunning,however. Or objects herself having told that Ukraine would purchase Russian gas that was in our vaults, at special price. And was going to use part of it on technical maintenance of exporting of Russian gas through our tubes.

Frankly speaking, even $228,8 is a suspicious price. Suppose if $360 is the highest price, and $179 (as it was last year) – the lowest, the average price should be about $270. Not counting technical gas which Ukraine is obliged to buy at its cost, but will probably cover these expences re-exporting it.

Plus we should remember two important facts. At first, Ukraine will suffer losses because the price for using Ukranian gas pipe didn’t grow proportionally to the Rusiian gas price. Let’s make a simple calculation. Russia pays Ukraine $1,7 for transporting 1000 cubic meters of gas on 100 km. Average distance which is passed by Russian gas by our pipe aproximately 1100 km. Russia transports to Europe at least 110 milliards cubic meters of gas annually. So Ukraine gains about $2 milliards anually. And the lowest European price is $4 per 100 kilometers, so we could gain about $4,7 milliards. Accordingly we can say that Timoshenko complimented Putin about $2,7 milliards.

How much gas could be purchased by these? 10-12 milliards of cubic meters at least. Timoshenko grants Putin more than the 50% of annual gas necessity of Ukraine. Receiving the increasing of prices and Ukraine’s obligation to buy technical gas by own cost, though at favourable prices.

And even more. Timoshenko also presented to “Gazprom” 25% of Ukrainian domestic gas market. No doubts, that Russians will get the segment of market on which participants pay in time for the used «blue fuel», and unprofitable domestic users will be given to «Naftogaz». Timoshenko, in essence, not only geared Ukrainian industry to the Kremlin whims but also signed a sentence for dying «Naftogaz» by that.

And pessimistic prognoses that «Naftogaz» is going to heave up a gas cost for domestic users more than twice – already does not seem such unbelievable.

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